The Housing Market Has Reset. Have We?
- Paul Cantor
- 3 days ago
- 4 min read
Today’s housing decisions requires a different way of thinking.
If you’ve followed the national news over the past year, you’ve probably come away with one conclusion: the housing market is in trouble.
The headlines have been predictable. Higher interest rates. Slower home sales. Predictions of falling prices. Depending on the source, we’re either headed for another housing correction or simply waiting for rates to fall before everything returns to “normal.”
But here in Central Virginia, that’s not the market we’re experiencing.
Has the pace slowed from the extraordinary frenzy of 2021 and 2022? Absolutely. But that’s very different from saying the market has stopped. Across much of the Richmond region, we’ve continued to see healthy home appreciation, well-priced homes are still attracting buyers, and homeowners have continued to build meaningful equity. Families are still buying, selling, and moving every day.
The market hasn’t broken. It’s reset.
That’s an important distinction because many people are still trying to make today’s housing decisions using yesterday’s expectations.
The Golden Handcuffs
One of the biggest reasons today’s market feels different is what economists call the lock-in effect. I prefer a more relatable term: the golden handcuffs.
Millions of homeowners purchased or refinanced when mortgage rates were historically low. Today, moving often means replacing that loan with one carrying a significantly higher interest rate. It’s completely understandable why so many homeowners have decided to stay where they are.
That decision makes financial sense. It has also created a new reality. Fewer homeowners are listing their homes, inventory remains tight, and the market feels slower—not because people don’t want to move, but because many feel financially anchored to the home they already own.
But that’s only part of the story.
When Life Changes Before the Market Does
Recently, I met with a couple who had welcomed twins since buying their first home. On paper, staying exactly where they were made perfect financial sense. They had an excellent mortgage rate, affordable monthly payments, and a home that had appreciated nicely over the last several years.
As we talked, it became clear the real question wasn’t whether they could afford to move.
It was whether their current home still fit the life they were living. That conversation reflects what so many families are wrestling with today. People rarely move because of interest rates. They move because life changes.
Families grow. Careers evolve. Parents begin needing care. Children leave for college. Some people now work from home full-time, while others want a shorter commute or more room for their family. Those aren’t housing market problems. They’re life changes.
Financial decisions matter, but they should always be viewed in the context of the life you’re trying to build.
The Opportunity Cost of Standing Still
Most homeowners begin with the same question:
“Can I really give up my current mortgage?”
It’s a fair question.
But I don’t think it’s the only question worth asking.
A better one might be:
What’s the opportunity cost of staying?
What opportunities are being postponed because you’re focused on preserving yesterday’s financing? Is your family making do in a home that’s become too small? Are you delaying a move closer to aging parents or grandchildren? Are you sacrificing time, convenience, or quality of life because the numbers don’t look as attractive as they did a few years ago?
Those are real costs, too.
If your current home still supports your family, your finances, and your future, holding onto that low-rate mortgage may be one of the best financial decisions you’ll ever make.
But if your life has changed, don’t let one number become the only factor driving a much bigger decision.
Don’t Forget What You’ve Already Built
There’s another part of today’s market that deserves more attention.
Imagine two neighbors.
Five years ago, one family purchased a home while the other decided to continue renting, waiting for the market to cool down. Neither decision was unreasonable. Both made the best decision they could with the information they had at the time.
Fast forward to today.
Many homeowners in Central Virginia have accumulated six figures of equity through appreciation and paying down their mortgage. That equity represents choices. It can help fund the next home, strengthen long-term financial security, or simply provide flexibility that didn’t exist just a few years ago.
The renter’s experience may have looked very different. In many cases, monthly rent has increased by more than $1,050 per month over the last five years—an increase of more than $12,600 each year—without building ownership in an appreciating asset.
This isn’t about saying one decision was right and the other was wrong. Renting is absolutely the right choice for many people during different seasons of life.
It’s simply a reminder that every housing decision comes with an opportunity cost. Looking only at today’s monthly payment often means missing the bigger financial picture.
A Different Way to Think About Today’s Market
One of the biggest mistakes people make is searching for a universal answer to a very personal question.
“Is now a good time to move?”
There isn’t a universal answer.
The right decision depends on your goals, your finances, your family, and the life you’re trying to build.
If your current home still serves you well, that’s wonderful.
If it doesn’t, waiting indefinitely for yesterday’s market to return may not be the answer either.
The goal isn’t to recreate 2021. Those conditions are behind us.
The goal is to make the best decision in the market we have today—not the one we wish we still had.
Perhaps the better question isn’t whether today’s market is good or bad. It’s whether your current home still supports the life you’re living. Because the housing market isn’t broken. It’s simply reset.
And perhaps it’s time we reset the way we think about housing decisions.
Let’s Have a Conversation
If this article has you thinking differently about your own situation, let’s have a conversation.
There may be good reasons to move. There may be even better reasons to stay. The important thing is understanding the trade-offs so you can make the decision that’s right for your family.
Paul Cantor
Cantor Team Home Loans
NMLS #49523
📞 804-719-1515
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