There’s Plenty of Noise Around the Housing Market Right Now
Mortgage rates have moved sharply. Buyers are wondering whether they should wait. And with more homes available for sale, it would be reasonable to wonder whether home values are starting to weaken.
Nationally, there are some signs of that. In September, the median asking price was **down 1.4% from a year ago.**
Richmond is telling a different story.
Richmond-area active listings were up **21.3% year over year in September**, giving buyers substantially more choice. Yet the median asking price was still **2.3% higher than a year ago.**
The latest CVR MLS closed-sales data reinforces that. The Richmond Metro median single-family sales price was **$450,000 in August—up 3.7% from a year ago.** So far, more inventory and higher borrowing costs have **not translated into broadly falling Richmond-area home values.**
That doesn't tell us what happens next. But it reinforces something I tell buyers all the time:
Don't build your financial plan around trying to predict the market.
If I were considering buying a home right now, I’d start with three numbers I can actually control.
1. What monthly payment am I truly comfortable with?
Notice I didn’t say, *“What payment can I qualify for?”*
Those can be two very different numbers.
A lender can calculate what you’re technically allowed to borrow. But that calculation doesn’t know how much you want to save for retirement, what other financial goals you have, or simply how much breathing room you want in your monthly budget.
Especially when rates are moving quickly, I’d rather start with the payment that fits your life and work backward.
**Your budget should determine the mortgage—not the other way around.**
2. How much money will I have left after closing?
Buyers understandably focus on how much they should put down.
I’m often just as interested in what’s left **after** the down payment.
If buying the house empties your savings account, that concerns me—even if putting more money down gives you a slightly lower payment.
Homes need repairs. Cars break. Life happens.
Cash gives you options.
Sometimes putting 20% down is absolutely the right move. Sometimes putting less down and maintaining stronger reserves is the better financial decision.
The question isn’t simply, *“How much can I put down?”*
It’s How much should I put down?
3. How long do I realistically expect to own this home?
Your expected time in the home matters because it affects how we think about the entire transaction.
Closing costs, points, loan structure, how much cash to put down and even the importance of today’s interest rate can all look different depending on your plans.
It also helps put short-term market movements into perspective.
Richmond-area values have remained resilient, but nobody knows what home prices—or mortgage rates—will do over the next year.
**The question isn’t whether you can perfectly time the market. It’s whether the home and financing make sense for the time you expect to own it.**
Look at the Entire Transaction
This is particularly important in today’s Richmond market.
More homes for sale can create opportunities to negotiate price, closing costs, repairs or seller assistance toward a rate buydown—even while overall home values remain relatively strong.
That’s why I wouldn’t make a decision based solely on the interest rate.
**You don’t buy an interest rate. You buy an entire transaction.**
Sometimes we may run the numbers and find an opportunity that wasn’t obvious at first.
Other times, we may run the numbers and decide:
'This doesn’t make financial sense yet.' That’s a perfectly good answer too.
The Bottom Line
Nobody knows with certainty where mortgage rates or Richmond home values will be six months from now.
Fortunately, you don’t need to.
**Know the payment that fits your life.
Know how much cash you want left after closing.
Understand your likely time horizon.**
Then evaluate the entire transaction around those three things.
The goal isn’t simply to get a mortgage. It’s to make a good financial decision
Have a great week,
Paul Cantor
Cantor Team Home Loans
TrustMor Mortgage Company
NMLS #49523
Comments